We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.
Except all the preorder they’ve been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can’t use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money.
Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a “flood” or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.
It won’t be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I’m sure they’d much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it’s worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.
It’ll change nothing for about six months, then we’d see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.
We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.
Except all the preorder they’ve been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can’t use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money. Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a “flood” or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.
It won’t be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I’m sure they’d much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it’s worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.
It’ll change nothing for about six months, then we’d see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.