I have said in the past that China is still a decade away from EUV, but I didn’t realize DUV has been pushed enough that it can be used (even with effort) to hit 7nm.

7nm chips with a lower yield and more processing steps may not be dollar-for-dollar competitive, but China’s government can and will subsidize the extra cost, time and chips needed to achieve the same performance. With Trump slitting the US’s throat economically (how many chip fabs does one Iran War cost? How many fabs do utterly pointless tariffs cost?), the western-monopolized chip industries may retain some paper advantage for the foreseeable future, but I fully expect in five years, a complete flood of lower-cost Chinese chips to capture all but the highest-end markets.

Even if the AI bubble bursts soon and the US somehow loosens sale restrictions, I don’t see China giving up this strategic investment in supply-chain independent, that has clearly proven prescient. And I won’t be surprised if China export controls right back at us, once hyperscalers have fully pushed out retail for a chance at supply, and only China has surplus supply.